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WisPolitics Summarizes Rest of Democrat Field
By Wisconsin School Administrators Alliance staff | January 23, 2012
— Peter Barca: Assembly Dems turned to the former congressman to serve as their minority leader after getting wiped out in the 2010 elections, believing his past stint in the chamber and his time in the House gave him a certain heft that they needed. And insiders say Barca delivered admirably during the standoff over collective bargaining, holding down the fort as Senate Dems fled the Capitol and his caucus waged a marathon session against the bill. Still, insiders argue Barca faces issues of low name recognition, money-raising capability and how fast he can build a statewide operation. Some argue Barca may have been able to make a move for the union vote considering his Kenosha roots if Falk hadn’t been so aggressive in courting labor leaders. Some Dems also say Barca has matured as a lawmaker since his first stint in the Assembly and has stepped out of the shadows of fellow Kenoshans John Antaramian and Joe Andrea. But Dems suggest he would be unlikely to get into the race if his friend Barrett decides to run.
— Tim Cullen: The Janesville Dem points to his lengthy resume as an example of how he could reach across the aisle to foster a better working relationship in Madison and move the state past the rancor that has roiled it for much of the past year. But that might not be what Dems are looking for in a primary fight, insiders say. With a base that’s ginned up to take out Walker, Dem primary voters likely won’t be thrilled with someone the guv praised during last year’s standoff as one of the Dems with whom he could work. And they likely wouldn’t appreciate his time in GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson’s cabinet or his work in the health insurance industry. In short, Cullen might not be Dem enough. Insiders say Cullen could offer voters a bit of an elder statesman approach, representing a kinder time in Wisconsin politics. But politics these days is a blood sport, and partisans are looking for someone with sharp elbows to lead the way. What’s more, Cullen has never run statewide and would face some hurdles to raise the money and put together the operation needed for a campaign. It’s telling, some say, that Cullen was a distant fourth in this week’s PPP survey on the Dem primary when matched up against Barrett, Falk and Obey. Cullen said that was no surprise since two of them have run statewide before and all three have been in the media the last few years a lot more than he has. And he appears fully committed to the race at this point, filing papers to run in December and saying he’ll make a formal announcement within the next few weeks.
— Jon Erpenbach: The perpetual knock on the Middleton Dem is that it’s a big jump from state senator to statewide candidate, where he’d have to show the ability to raise real money and build a real statewide campaign. Still, he argues money won’t be a problem for the Dem running against Walker because the race will have such national implications that the money will flow on both sides, whether it’s through the campaigns or from third parties. But Erpenbach would start at an even bigger financial disadvantage than the other contenders, if his last campaign finance report is any indication. The July continuing report shows he was $430 in the hole at the end of June. Still, Erpenbach won a great deal of goodwill in the labor community while Senate Dems went into their self-imposed exile to hold up the vote on the collective bargaining changes, often serving as the mouthpiece for the caucus. That still carries a great deal of weight with a segment of the Dem base. It also helped prompt talk of Erpenbach possibly running for the open 2nd CD or the U.S. Senate, but he passed on both races. Insiders aren’t convinced he’d get in this time, particularly if Barrett gets in. What’s more, while leaving the state plays well with a segment of the Dem base, it likely wouldn’t be a big selling point in a general election.
— Steve Kagen: The former U.S. rep from Appleton has been mentioned as a possible candidate for the U.S. Senate, his old seat in the 8th CD and now guv. One GOP operative jokes that Kagen’s name has been floated so much recently that he’s becoming the unemployed version of Ron Kind. But he’s also got a big checkbook, and that’s one thing that could help Kagen in a primary. All of the candidates will be scrambling for resources and may have a hard time winning over donors hesitant to back the wrong candidate before the primary is over. Being able to grease the skids with your own cash could help get a campaign off the ground. But Dem insiders generally don’t consider Kagen a serious contender for the nomination at this point.
— Dave Obey: The former House Appropriations chair says he hasn’t closed any doors, but he isn’t opening any, either. His name continues to be tossed around as a possible guv candidate, and he could bring some things to the race – a national profile, a long history of fundraising, hefty stature as an elder statesman, and his well-known reputation for being a cantankerous liberal. But insiders generally believe Obey wouldn’t get in unless he’s convinced no one else in the field could beat Walker. He has made it clear in several forums that his preference is for Barrett or U.S. Sen. Herb Kohl to run and that they’re the party’s best chances for retaking the guv’s office. He’s also taken some veiled swipes at Falk and the union forces that appear to be lining up behind her, saying this week, Dems need “to identify a candidate who can win, not just someone who satisfies our biases.”
— Kathleen Vinehout: The Alma state senator’s interest in the race surprised some. Though her fans believe her to offer a “real Wisconsin” candidacy, she isn’t expected to be a serious contender for the nomination given her lack of statewide name ID and fundraising sources. Some critics note that she was swept into office in the 2006 Dem wave despite a string of what insiders thought were cringe-worth gaffes and then barely survived the 2010 GOP wave running against Libertarian-turned-Republican Ed Thompson, who was sidelined for much of the final drive of the campaign as he battled cancer. She also opposes abortion rights, which wouldn’t play well in a Dem primary.
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