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Falk vs. Barrett Looks Like Key Matchup
By Wisconsin School Administrators Alliance staff | January 23, 2012
From WisPolitics . . .
More than half a dozen Dems are kicking the tires on a guv run. But most insiders say only one possible matchup really matters at this point: Falk v. Barrett.
Former Dane County Exec Kathleen Falk has already announced her plans to run, state Sen. Tim Cullen has filed and plans to make a formal announcement in the next few weeks, and other Dems continue to say they’re weighing a bid. But all eyes are on Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and what the 2010 Dem guv candidate will do.
As insiders size up a possible primary the general lines on Falk and Barrett seem to be these:
— Falk has fully embraced the recall effort from the get-go, endearing her to some in the movement and winning her big-time credit with the union forces that will provide boots on the ground and money in the primary. She can tout her time as county exec for being someone who crafted tight budgets and worked with union employees to win concessions rather than going to war with them like Scott Walker did. And with some polls showing the guv faces a significant gender gap, she may be best positioned to keep it that way. The flip side is she’s lost statewide twice — just like Barrett has — was painted as anti-business in the 2006 AG’s race, quit the exec’s office midterm after winning re-election in 2009 and has assorted baggage from her time in office, election handicappers pay. Perhaps none could be as damaging as the problems Dane County’s 911 call center had under her watch. Nancy Mistele made those issues a central tenet of her 2009 county exec challenge. But what Walker and GOP groups can do with that issue — one that’s not really known statewide — will make Mistele’s attacks look like they were fired from pea shooters, insiders say. What’s more, there appears to be a segment of the professional political class in Madison that’s convinced she can’t win a statewide race against Walker.
— Barrett is viewed by many in the Dem establishment as having the better name ID, the remnants of a 2010 statewide campaign that he can fire back up and a head start on resources. While Falk had some $27,000 left over in her county exec fund last summer, Barrett has been actively campaigning and fundraising for an April mayoral re-election that features token opposition. The negative spin on Barrett is whether he can win a Dem primary if union forces back Falk. Their endorsement doesn’t always mean victory in Dem primaries. But they provide the volunteers and financial resources, especially in what is going to be a very compact race with Walker raising money for the time being in unlimited amounts. Many also see the election against Walker as a base-vs.-base contest that demands a Dem candidate who inspires high turnout in what could be the middle of the summer. Handicappers also say Barrett has his baggage as mayor of Milwaukee, a city with a whole host of problems. Expect Republicans to question how he can attack Walker for the collective bargaining changes he championed when Barrett used them to balance his own budget.
There are a number of factors that insiders say will play a role in the primary, should Barrett decide to join Falk in the race. Here are just a few:
**The union influence**
The state’s public employee unions are no fans of Barrett and are not hiding it.
“He’s not our favorite elected official these days. We think he’s made some significant errors in how he’s approached his unions, and we’re disappointed,” said AFSCME Council 48 executive direct Rich Abelson.
“Obviously, there are some of the candidates who excited the crowd more than others.”
The three AFSCME locals met with potential Dem candidates last week as they separately weigh endorsements. But the overwhelming sentiment appears to be
those endorsements are essentially Falk’s for the taking.
The list of grievances that the public employee unions have with Barrett range from his attempts to push through mayoral control of Milwaukee Public Schools
to advocating Walker’s collective bargaining changes apply to police and firefighters in addition to other government workers, and finally using those changes to balance his city budget.
If Barrett gets in, he would likely start with a significant financial edge over Falk. He reported a warchest last summer of almost $370,000 and has been actively fundraising for his mayoral re-election in April. Meanwhile, Falk had about $27,000 left in her campaign account at last report.
But the unions will be expected to provide significant resources for any candidates they get behind, particularly with volunteers and independent expenditures. Some also wonder whether Barrett could make it through a Dem primary with the unions uniformly against him.
Still, some point to this week’s Public Policy Polling survey as a sign of the limited reach unions may have in primaries. The survey showed Barrett well ahead of Falk in a head-to-head matchup and slightly ahead in a hypothetical four-way primary.
Some also argue there is a disconnect between what union leadership wants and what the rank-and-file may do in the polling booth.
**How badly does Barrett want it?**
The question drives Barrett backers crazy. After running for guv twice and now considering a third bid, isn’t it clear by now that he really, really wants the office? But the perception that he was a reluctant candidate in 2010 and perhaps lacks the fire in the belly continues to dog him.
To some, it’s just a fact of Barrett’s nature. He’s cautious and a nice guy, and that comes off to some as not wanting it badly enough.
One backer promised if Barrett gets into the race, it will be because he believes he can win.
“People want him to run,” the backer said. “If they want him to run, he wants to know that he can look them in the eye and can say he’ll win.”
Various Dem sources say Barrett has been making calls in recent weeks to feel out potential supporters and get their feedback.
But that also smacks some of quintessential Barrett. Falk fully embraced the recall effort, helped deliver papers to the Government Accountability Board, attended rallies and announced her plans the day after the signatures were turned in.
In contrast, Barrett irritated the unions when asked during his re-election announcement for mayor if he’d signed a recall petition yet. His backers say he gave a cautious answer because he didn’t want to turn his announcement into a political attack on Walker. His detractors, though, saw it as an insult to all the union members who were working to collect signatures to trigger the recall.
One critical Dem said Barrett has asked people if Wisconsin wants a mature statesman or a hell-raising progressive, failing to grasp they’re not mutually exclusive.
“Does he want it? Why is he running?” the Dem said. “Secondly, where his core values and principles are; I don’t know he knows the answer to either.”
**Falk’s Peg hangover**
Much of the early conversation on a possible primary race between the two has focused on Barrett’s problems with the unions. But Falk has her own issues with the Dem base, some say. A good chunk of the tension traces back to her challenge of then-Attorney General Peg Lautenschlager in the 2006 Dem primary after Lautenschlager’s electability was questioned after a high-profile drunken driving arrest.
Falk lost Dane County to Lautenschlager by more than 10,000 votes in the September primary even as she won statewide with almost 52 percent of the vote.
Falk then underperformed that November in her home county compared to Jim Doyle — never a fan favorite of the party’s progressive wing — by more than 11,000 votes as she lost to Republican J.B. Van Hollen by fewer than 9,000 votes statewide.
Less than three years later, Falk won her re-election bid over Nancy Mistele with 59 percent of the vote. By comparison, Barrett beat Walker in Dane County in 2010 with 68 percent of the vote.
Go back to 2002, and there are some who believe Falk’s entrance into the Dem guv primary allowed Doyle to beat Barrett in a three-way race with 38 percent of the vote.
“She has a lingering issue with Peg, but not a defining one,” one Dem said.
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