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WisPolitics Handicaps Senate Recalls

By Wisconsin School Administrators Alliance staff | January 30, 2012

Don’t expect Dems to put a lot of resources into trying to knock off Scott Fitzgerald in this summer’s expected recall elections.

The other three targets, however, are all very much in play, insiders say, and so is control of the state Senate. Whether Dems can pull that off this time, they say, could depends on a host of factors, from whether those races are on the ballot the same day as the guv’s race to the involvement of outside groups. Republicans, after losing two special recall elections last summer, hold a 17-16 edge, so Dems need to win only one seat to take control.

Sources told WisPolitics.com this week that former state Rep. Kristen Dexter, former state Sen. John Lehman and state Rep. Donna Seidel are set to announce Tuesday that they’re getting into the recall races against Terry Moulton of Chippewa Falls, Van Wanggaard of Racine and Pam Galloway of Wausau, respectively.

With opponents lined up in three of the four races, WisPolitics.com did an initial handicapping of the races that suggests insiders believe Moulton, Wanggaard and Galloway are vulnerable with Fitzgerald largely considered safe barring a huge upset.

One of the huge variables is when the elections will be held, assuming the recall petitions stand up to the review process (See more on that below.) Much of that will be in the hands of the GAB and the courts. Conventional wisdom so far suggests Republicans would prefer to have the four races on the ballot the same day Walker is on the top of the ballot. The guv’s operation could then take care of turnout, allowing the senators to focus their resources on message and other parts of the campaign.

Senate Republicans, meanwhile, still haven’t taken off the table the prospect of running “fake” or “protest” candidates to ensure Dems have primaries like they did last summer. As of now, it’s looking like there will be a Dem primary in the guv field, and it would be a huge advantage for Dems to have all four Senate general recall elections to occur on that day. Look for Republicans to try to avoid that situation.

Here’s an overview of the four races based on interviews with insiders and other sources, including campaign finance reports filed this week. It’s also based on the assumption the current boundaries of the four Senate districts are used this summer as the Government Accountability Board ruled previously. Court cases are currently pending that could alter those boundaries, which would dramatically impact Dem chances in some of the seats.

HANDICAPPING NOTE: Candidates identified as having an edge are generally considered likely to be almost safe bets to win. Districts with a lean are seen going either way, though one candidate appears to have an advantage. Toss-up means too close to call.

–13th (Scott Fitzgerald) — EDGE to Fitzgerald

Going after Fitzgerald is more about irritating the majority leader and trying to keep him busy than it is a legitimate effort to beat him, some say. Unlike the other three seats, the Dem Party didn’t put significant resources into the petition drive in the 13th, leaving it largely up to local volunteers led by Lori Compas. Likewise, Dem sources indicated the possible field of candidates has been slower to develop than the other three. Compas has said she’d consider running if no one else did, but added she had long hoped state Rep. Andy Jorgensen, D-Fort Atkinson, would challenge Fitzgerald. A meeting is planned early next week to discuss possible candidates. Redistricting, however, looks like it would complicate Jorgensen getting in. Under the new legislative maps Republicans drew this summer, Jorgensen was drawn into an Assembly seat with Rep. Steve Nass, R-Whitewater, and has already announced plans to run in the neighboring 43rd against freshman Steve Wynn, R-Whitewater. Making that move, one source said, isn’t that complicated for Jorgensen, whose kids could stay in the same school district. That wouldn’t be the case, however, if he won the 13th in a recall. Under the new district lines, Jorgensen would have to move into that district to represent it, uprooting his kids in the process. Even with someone like Jorgensen, who has proven to be a good campaigner and survived the 2010 GOP wave in a not-so-safe Assembly seat, beating Fitzgerald would be a very tall task. Insiders generally expect Compas to get in, and Dems say she has a proven field of activists who would go to great lengths to help her after they pitched in on the petition drive. Compas would also offer a fresh face, but face significant hurdles in terms of organization and fundraising with Dems largely content to focus their efforts elsewhere. Barring some bad developments for Fitzgerald in this race, he appears fairly safe.

–21st (Van Wanggaard) — TOSS-UP

Some insiders believe Moulton is the most vulnerable of the four GOP senators because of western Wisconsin’s reaction to the collective bargaining controversy, while others argue it’s Wanggaard in part because of the district’s history. Since Republican George Petak was beaten in a recall election more than 15 years ago, only one person has been re-elected to the seat. Racine County has a volatile history politically to go along with one of the highest unemployment rates in the state and has been a bellwether in past elections. Wanggaard beat Lehman two years ago with 52.5 percent of the vote, propelled in party by a Tea Party movement that has taken hold in the area. Wanggaard will also have Milwaukee talk radio in his backyard: just ask GOP Sen. Alberta Darling how much of a boost that can be in a recall election. Some note Wanggaard is now being recalled over collective bargaining when he wasn’t necessarily a big fan of Walker’s initial proposal and worked on an alternative with fellow GOP Sen. Dale Schultz that never got much traction with the caucus. He has since said his objections led to improvements in the legislation. Republicans have all the opposition research they need on Lehman and only need to dust it off to take another run at him. Still, Dems like him as their candidate, saying he brings experience and name ID to the table, both of which will be particularly important with a short timeframe to get the campaign off the ground and up to full speed. Still, insiders note a Lehman win would most likely be a temporary victory for Dems. The district becomes significantly more Republican under the maps GOP lawmakers drew this summer. Unless they’re tossed and redrawn by the courts, there’s almost no chance Lehman would have to hold the seat when the current term is up in 2014, insiders say.

–23rd (Terry Moulton) — TOSS-UP

This one will be a rematch of 2008, when Dexter edged Moulton for the 68th Assembly District by 272 votes in a Dem wave. Two years later, Dexter lost her re-election bid by 92 votes in a GOP wave while Moulton was swept back into public office, knocking off Dem Sen. Pat Kreitlow with 54 percent of the vote. But since then, Republicans have seen western Wisconsin kick back hard against the GOP brand in response to the collective bargaining changes, and insiders say this is probably one of the top two races. To understand the dynamic in western Wisconsin, look no further than Mike Huebsch’s old Assembly seat in the La Crosse area, some say. Nominally a GOP seat for years, Dem Steve Doyle won it in a special election last year after Huebsch became DOA secretary. The difference, though, is Doyle was viewed as a moderate Dem who had a long history on the county board. Dexter, meanwhile, will be portrayed as a classic liberal, and Republicans will likely try to use her votes in the 2009-10 session to tear her down. Expect the bill Assembly Dems approved to grant illegal immigrants driver’s licenses, for one, to make it into a lit piece before the campaign is over, some say. Of the four, Moulton had the weakest fundraising numbers in the last two reporting periods, though he had an $118,137 warchest in mid-January. Expect Dems to make the argument that Moulton will be outworked by Dexter.

–29th (Pam Galloway) — TOSS-UP

Of the three vulnerables, Galloway has the best district by the numbers for Republicans, and insiders say polling in the Wausau media market suggests Walker’s collective bargaining changes haven’t inspired that much passion. Still, Galloway also may be the least well known of the three freshman, and Seidel is the challenger Dems most wanted to take her on. Former Senate Majority Leader Russ Decker held onto the seat for 20 years as a pro-gun, pro-labor moderate Dem. But national groups dropped hundreds of thousands of dollars to take him out in the November 2010 election, and Galloway won with more than 52 percent of the vote. The catch, some say, is most of the money was spent to tear Decker down, not to build Galloway up. Some suggest Galloway, who doesn’t have deep roots in the district, isn’t well known to area voters. That’s no surprise for a freshman state senator less than two years into her first term. But it’s a vulnerability heading into a recall election, some say. Marathon County Dem Chair Jeff Johnson has already announced plans to run for the Dem nomination, but Johnson told WisPolitics today he would back Seidel “100 percent” if she gets in. Some suggest she has a nice profile for the district, particularly given her past as a police officer and an investigator for the DA. But, like Dexter, she also has a record and one that Republicans will undoubtedly use to draw sharp contrasts between how they balanced the budget (making public employees pay their “fair share,” “tough cuts” and “responsible choices” and such language) and what Dems did in the 2009-11 budget (“tax hikes,” “gimmicks” and similar slams).

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